NPR News

How Syria's revolution could reshape the Middle East

By Greg Myre

Published December 9, 2024 at 12:03 PM CST

Syrians inspect documents in the infamous Saydnaya prison, just north of Damascus, on Monday. Crowds are entering the prison, known as the "human slaughterhouse," following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad and the release of thousands of prisoners who were held by the regime.

The swift downfall of Bashar al-Assad is reverberating in Syria and throughout the Middle East.

Some changes are already apparent. Syrians who fled the country's vicious civil war years ago are lining up at border crossings to return home. The gates are swinging open at the country's notorious prisons, freeing thousands. Syrians are speaking freely after decades of repressive rule.

Many more developments are still to come. Here's a preliminary look at what the upheaval could mean for a range of countries that have interests in Syria.

United States

The U.S. military carried out an unusually large airstrike Sunday on Islamic State bases in central Syria. The U.S. says this was done because a group of Islamic State fighters gathered to train, perhaps hoping to take advantage of the turmoil in Syria. The U.S. hit some 75 targets with a variety of aircraft, including massive B-52 bombers.

U.S. forces have been battling the Islamic State in Syria for a decade and largedly defeated the group five years ago. About 900 U.S. troops remain to prevent a resurgence of the extremist organization. Most of the Americans are in remote northeastern Syria, with others in the far south.

President Biden said Sunday the U.S. would maintain this military presence. He called Assad's ouster both a moment of risk and opportunity, adding that the U.S. would work with Syrians as they try to put together a new government.

However, President-elect Trump is striking a different tone. He took to social media over the weekend and said Syria is not a U.S. problem, the U.S. should not get involved, and should just let events play out.

But the U.S. is already involved. Those U.S. troops are not just fighting the Islamic State, they've also been protecting vulnerable Syrian civilians.

Mouaz Moustafa, with the Syrian Emergency Task Force, an American aid group, said the U.S. forces have supplied humanitarian assistance to displaced civilians in a barren area on Syria's southern border.

"If you spoke to any of these people and you asked them about the United States military, and you asked them about the relationship between the two, those Syrians love the American military," Moustafa said.

Syrians who have been refugees in Turkey arrive at the Turkey-Syria border crossing near the Turkish town of Antakya as they return to their homeland. Some 3 million Syrians have been living in Turkey.

Iran

Assad's downfall is the latest in a series of major setbacks for Tehran. Persian Iran has spent the past four decades developing Arab partners and proxies in the region, collectively known as the "axis of resistance." But in the past year, they've been tumbling like dominos.

Iran was critical to Assad as he battled to stay in power during the country's civil war that erupted in 2011. Iran's Revolutionary Guards maintained a strong presence in Syria until pulling out last week, just ahead of rebel advances. Iran also used Syria as a bridge to ship weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But now Assad is gone, Hezbollah has been greatly weakened by its war with Israel, and another Iranian proxy, Hamas in Gaza, has been devastated by its own war with Israel.

"Losing Syria will deal a huge blow to Iran and its proxies in the region. And that's why I think right now the leaders in Tehran must be feeling quite anxious," said Gonul Tol, with the Middle East Institute in Washington. "This is a moment where Iran's regional strategy has been dealt a huge blow, and at a time when the regime at home is being questioned by millions of Iranians."

Syrians wave the Syrian opposition flag as they celebrate the ouster of former leader Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, combined to rule Syria for more than 50 years.

Russia

Syria was Russia's main partner in the region for decades. When the Syrian rebels were threatening Assad's government in 2015, the Russian air force heavily bombed rebel areas and helped secure Assad's hold on power.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin said this showed Russia's commitment to supporting its allies.

But Russia is now preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and carried out only a few airstrikes as Assad's regime collapsed, demonstrating it was not able or willing to provide significant support.

Russia places great value on the naval base and the air base it has on Syria's Mediterranean coast. They are Russia's only military bases in the Middle East, and now they are very much at risk. Russia's previous bombing campaigns inflicted heavy punishment on the rebels — and Syrian civilians — and they may not be inclined to let Russia keep that military presence.

In addition, Russia has granted asylum to Assad and his family, which could be a point of contention with a new Syrian government.

Israel

Israel was always at odds with Assad, but considered him the devil they knew. Israel acknowledged that Assad kept the frontier with Israel largely calm, even when the wider region was aflame.

Israel will now face a Syria that's highly unpredictable and where Islamist groups could assume a prominent role. For the past year, Israel has been fighting one such group to its south — Hamas in Gaza — and another to its north — Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is wary of a similar group in Syria.

Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed the strategic territory. Israel's continued hold on the Golan Heights is certain to remain a major point of friction, regardless of who emerges in power in Damascus.

Turkey

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiple aims in Syria and is well positioned to play a leading role in its future.

For starters, he would like to shape a new government in Syria to his liking, said the Middle East Institute's Gonul Tol, author of Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria.

"Turkey can become the kingmaker," said Tol. "Turkey will stand to benefit both domestically and regionally from a new and, potentially, a very friendly government in Damascus."

The Turkish leader would also like to see more than 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey head home. Some have already begun doing so. In addition, Turkish construction companies are well placed to rebuild Syria, ravaged by more than a decade of war.

However, Erdogan's ambitions will depend on Syria restoring relative stability. Under Erdogan, the Turkish military has often operated in Syria against various Kurdish groups that Erdogan views as a potential threats to his rule. If Erdogan chooses to operate against Kurdish factions in Syria, that could undermine efforts to rebuild Syria.