DAVID FOLKENFLIK, HOST:
It's the biggest invasion of Russia since the end of World War II - Ukraine's surprise incursion into the Kursk region. It stunned Moscow. The fighting has continued for two weeks now, and Russia's vowed to retaliate with, quote, "a worthy response." But could this operation change the very course of the conflict? Joining us now is Phillips O'Brien. He's a professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland. Welcome to the program.
PHILLIPS O'BRIEN: Glad to be here.
FOLKENFLIK: Professor O'Brien, just what has Ukraine achieved, and how significant is it?
O'BRIEN: Well, they've changed a number of things. I mean, they were never going to invade Russia and take Moscow. That was never, say, the purpose of this operation. The offensive has a number of reasons. One, I think, is to change the - one of the dynamics of the war, which was that, in a sense, Russia was never to be attacked directly over its border, that the United States and fears of escalation and other of Ukraine's partners have not wanted Ukraine to attack Russia directly. And the Ukrainians said enough of this. Russia has had a huge advantage by not having to defend their border. We are going to make them have to defend their border.
The second is, they realized the Russians have very few reserves. The Russians have been putting everything into the Donbas. And so what the Ukrainians are saying - you have no reserves. We're going to now make you try to move your troops around and defend yourselves because you're weak in that sense.
Another thing is to show the Russian military is just not this great powerful force that sometimes the Western press makes it out to be. The Russian military is really a ponderous organization with some major weaknesses. And in doing this operation, the Ukrainians have shown us what those are.
FOLKENFLIK: Is there some danger of overreach here for the Ukrainians?
O'BRIEN: Well, the danger that some people are saying is it means the Ukrainians have used these forces here instead of throwing them into the Donbas. The Ukrainians I speak to think this is a nonsense argument. The Donbas is where the Russians have almost everything, and they're advancing very slowly by just blowing things up in their wake. So by just throwing more forces in the Donbas, the Ukrainians thought, it's just putting your head into a - to a meat grinder, that this was, in fact, a better way to do it because it plays on Russian weaknesses and takes the initiative away from Russia. So there are some Western analysts who say this is a risk. The Ukrainians I speak to don't accept the risk that they are being told they're running.
FOLKENFLIK: How big a setback is this for Russia and for President Vladimir Putin?
O'BRIEN: Well, I mean, if Ukraine can take a chunk of Russia and fortify it and hold it, this is a big problem for Putin. Putin is a dictator. Dictators thrive on visions of strength, that they control their nation. They provide security. If the Ukrainians can show that Putin can't defend the border of Russia and, moreover, can't drive the Ukrainians back, that is a big problem for Putin's image.
Also there are certain political things we have to watch. The Ukrainians have already captured a lot of conscripts. And conscripts are the draftees who Putin has said will never go fight in Ukraine. But actually, the Russians, cause they don't have a lot of reserves, have had to send conscripts to try and fight the Ukrainians, and they're losing them. So there are a lot of, we might say, potential political pitfalls for Putin in this.
FOLKENFLIK: And lastly, what's your sense of how this might play out in the coming weeks?
O'BRIEN: Well, I think the Ukrainians are going to stay there and force the Russians to try and deploy a large army to drive them back. The Ukrainians don't feel any desire to leave right now. This isn't a raid where they're going to run in and run out in a few days, which some people thought to begin with. They don't plan to occupy Russia forever, but they're not going to leave unless the Russians deploy massive force and try to drive them out. So I think what we're going to do is see more of the same until the Russians, you could say, get serious and realize they're going to need a very large force to try and push the Ukrainians back.
FOLKENFLIK: We've been speaking with Phillips O'Brien of St Andrews University and author of the forthcoming book "The Strategists." Professor O'Brien, thanks so much for joining us.
O'BRIEN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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